The End of the Japanese Stagnation: an Assessment of the Policy Solutions

After more than a decade of stagnant growth, the Japanese economy is showing signs of full recovery, with deflation also having come to an end. Since the mid 1990s both supply side and demand side policy solutions to the Japanese stagnation have been suggested. By means of a Factor Vector Autoregressive Model, the paper aims to assess whether the real depreciation of the yen and the quantitative easying implemented by the Bank of Japan have contributed to the recovery of the Japanese economy and to halt deflationary dynamics. The results of the paper point to the effectiveness of these latter policies, as well as to the role exercised by domestic productivity improvements and the expansion of world economic activity.factor vector autoregression, large scale macroeconometric model, Japan, monetary policy.

Realized Betas and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns

What explains the cross section of expected returns for the 25 size/value Fama-French portfolios? It is found that modelling time-varying betas is important to explain the cross-section of expected returns, as well as to comply with the time series restriction on Jensen-alpha. Support for a modi?ed version of the conditional Jagannathan and Wang (1996) CAPM model is found, where implementation is carried out in the realized beta framework proposed in the paper. About 63% of the cross-sectional variability of the expected returns for the 25 Fama-French size and value sorted portfolios is then found to be explained by this parsimonious two-variable model.realized regression, time-varying beta, conditional CAPM

The Japanese Deflation: Has It Had Real Effects? Could It Have Been Avoided?

Has deflation contributed to the long lasting stagnation of the Japanese economy? Could the Bank of Japan have stopped deflation by implementing a more expansionary monetary policy? Our tentative answers are probably not to the first question, and probably yes to the second question. We find that the total cost of deflation over the period 1995-2003 has been close to a 1.1% rate of lost GDP. Yet, on the basis of statistical significance and robustness to specification choices, this evidence is not compelling. On the other hand, the estimated positive linkage between nominal base money growth and inflation is significant and robust, even given current economic conditions. However, in order to be inflationary, monetary policy should have been more expansionary than what actually observed, even since the launch of the quantitative easing in 2001.deflation; monetary policy; Friedman's rule; Japan; generalised flexible least squares; time-varying parameter VAR; thick modelling

Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks

In the paper the fractionally integrated heteroskedastic factor vec- tor autoregressive (FI-HF-VAR) model is introduced. The proposed approach is characterized by minimal pretesting requirements and sim- plicity of implementation also in very large systems, performing well independently of integration properties and sources of persistence, i.e. deterministic or stochastic, accounting for common features of di¤erent kinds, i.e. common integrated (of the fractional or inte- ger type) or non integrated stochastic factors, also featuring condi- tional heteroskedasticity, and common deterministic break processes. The proposed approach allows for accurate investigation of economic time series, from persistence and copersistence analysis to impulse responses and forecast error variance decomposition. Monte Carlo results strongly support the proposed methodology. Key words: long and short memory, structural breaks, fractionally integrated heteroskedastic factor vector autoregressive model.

Measuring core inflation in the euro area

We propose a measure of core inflation which is derived from a Markov switching ARFIMA model. The Markov switching ARFIMA model generalises the standard ARFIMA model allowing mean reversion to take place with respect to a changing unconditional mean. By imposing a coswitching restriction for nominal money growth and HICP inflation we are able to identify three regimes and establish a linkage between the long-run dynamics of inflation and money growth. The last regime has been found to be coherent with the objective of price stability and can be tentatively named EMU regime. The core inflation model has been contrasted with other models suggested in the literature and found to be superior in terms of forecasting power. JEL Classification: C22, E31, E52Measuring core inflation

On the macroeconomic causes of exchange rates volatility

What are the causes of exchange rate volatility? When second moments implications of theories of exchange rates determination are considered, long-term fundamental linkages between macroeconomic and exchange rate volatility can be envisaged. Moreover, as the exchange rate is an important determinant of aggregate demand, bidirectional causality should be expected. The results of the paper support the above intuitions pointing to important linkages and trade-offs relating exchange rate and macroeconomic volatility, with causality direction stronger from macroeconomic volatility to exchange rate volatility than the other way around. In particular, with a long-term perspective, Friedman (1953) conclusions on the macroeconomic sources of exchange rates instability and the impossibility of eliminating systemic volatility find full support in the empirical findings.exchange rates volatility, macroeconomic volatility, long memory, structural change, fractional cointegration, cobreaking, fractionally integrated factor vector autoregressive model, G-7 area

Factor demand modelling: the theory and the practice

Since the work of Cobb and Douglas [18], two main innovations have been introduced in applied factor demand analysis, i.e. the use of flexible functional forms and the modelling of dynamics, expectations, and the interrelatedness of the adjustment process. Recently, cointegration theory has provided an additional important contribution, yielding empirical content to the notion of equilibrium employed in economic analysis, encompassing both the idea of centre of gravity relationship, suggested byClassical economists, and the notion of market-clearing position, employed by Neoclassical economist. Also in the light of the most recent generalizations of the concept of cointegration, allowing for economic attractors changing over time, as the evolution of the structural features of the economy proceeds, this paper critically assess the key theoretical and empirical issues in factor demand analysis.factor demand, flexible functional forms, error correction model, cointegration.

Estimating, Filtering and Forecasting Realized Betas

A strategy for estimating, ?filtering and forecasting time-varying factor betas is proposed. The approach is based on the multivariate realized regression principle, an omnibus noise ?filter and an adaptive long memory forecasting model. While the multivariate realized regression approach allows for an accurate estimation of the betas also when more than a (non-orthogonal) risk factor affects stock returns, the omnibus noise ?filter and adaptive long memory forecasting model, by accounting for the time series properties of factor betas, allow for accurate estimation and forecasting.realized regression, factor betas, long memory, structural change, forecasting, noise ?ltering.

Multivariate modelling of long memory processes with common components

In the paper a new approach to the modelling of common components in long memory processes is introduced. The approach is based on a two-step procedure relying on Fourier transform methods (firrst step) and principal components analysis (second step), which, differently from previous contributions to the literature, allows the modelling of large data sets, both in terms of temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. Monte Carlo evidence, supporting the two-step stimation procedure, is also provided, as well as an empirical application to real data.long memory; common long memory factor model; permanent-persistent-non persistent decomposition; permanent-transitory decomposition.

Realized portfolio selection in the euro area

A new approach to mean-variance efficient portfolio selection is introduced. The method is based on realized regression theory and the regression based portfolio selection approach of Britten-Jones (1999), yielding a conditional version of the Britten-Jones (1999) method. Application to euro area stock markets diversi?cation, differently from other standard approaches, actually yields a balanced and stable allocation of wealth, free from the problem of corner solutions, suggesting that diversi?cation among euro area stock markets is still be feasible and desirable. Evidence that the monetary union may have had a much less important impact on the integration of euro area equity markets, as well as that the latter is still in progress, is provided.asset allocation, portfolio choice, stock market integration, international diversi?cation, euro area, realized regression.